New York State Gubernatorial — Mock Poll (Illustrative)
Field dates (mock): Aug 10–13, 2025
Sample: 1,000 registered voters (RV), mixed phone/SMS-to-web
Weighting: Region, gender, age, party ID, race/ethnicity, education, 2022 vote recall
MOE: ±3.1% (RV)
Turnout model: 2022 general baseline with modest GOP improvement in suburbs
Topline — 3โWay Ballot (RV)
• Kathy Hochul (D) — 46%
• Elise Stefanik (R) — 32%
• Jason S. Arnold (I/Other) — 9%
• Someone else — 3%
• Undecided — 10%
Read: Mirrors typical D advantage statewide, Stefanik trails by lowโ to midโteens; Arnold shows early viability as the only candidate running a fully transparent plan.
HeadโtoโHead Scenarios (RV)
Hochul vs. Stefanik
• Hochul 48%
• Stefanik 35%
• Undecided 17%
Hochul vs. Jason S. Arnold
• Hochul 44%
• Arnold 38%
• Undecided 18%
Read: Arnold consolidates more independents and soft Democrats than Stefanik can, cutting the margin to single digits.
Region (3โWay Ballot)
• NYC (approx. 31% of sample): Hochul 67 | Stefanik 15 | Arnold 6 | Und 9
• Downstate Suburbs (LI/Westchester/Rockland, 28%): Hochul 44 | Stefanik 36 | Arnold 11 | Und 7
• Upstate (41%): Stefanik 44 | Hochul 33 | Arnold 11 | Und 9
Read: Arnold’s 10–11% in suburbs & upstate is a credible early lane; growth path is independents + moderate Republicans + antiโstatusโquo Dems.
Party & Independents (3โWay Ballot)
• Democrats: Hochul 77 | Arnold 8 | Stefanik 7 | Und 6
• Republicans: Stefanik 70 | Arnold 13 | Hochul 10 | Und 6
• Independents: Arnold 28 | Hochul 34 | Stefanik 24 | Und 12
Read: Arnold leads or competes for plurality among independents, the key to statewide viability.
Favorability (Fav/Unfav/Don’t know)
• Hochul: 45 / 49 / 6
• Stefanik: 33 / 52 / 15
• Jason S. Arnold: 24 / 16 / 60
Read: Arnold’s low negatives + high unknowns = big upside with nameโID growth.
Top Issues (open-coded → grouped)
• Cost of living/inflation: 34%
• Crime/public safety: 18%
• Housing/affordability: 15%
• Taxes: 12%
• Migration/services capacity: 9%
• Transit/infrastructure: 6%
• Other: 6%
Issue Ownership (net trust)
• Cost of living: Arnold +3 vs Hochul, Arnold +9 vs Stefanik
• Crime: Arnold +5 vs Hochul, Stefanik +2 vs Hochul
• Housing: Arnold +4 vs Hochul, Arnold +7 vs Stefanik
Read: The “fullโplan transparency” message gives Arnold an issues credibility edge—especially on daily-life economics & housing.
Message Tests (net more likely – less likely)
• “Full transparency: every policy & DayโOne orders published now.” +23
• “Coney Island 2.0: tourism/jobs engine (Vegas+AC without the rot).” +14 (Downstate suburbs +19)
• “Whistleblower/transparency on waste, fraud, and noโshow work.” +18
• “Education SEZ/LEZ: local control, measurable outcomes.” +12
• “Mental Health First Act & firstโresponder supports.” +11
โธป
Crosstab Highlights (selected)
• Women (RV): Hochul +17 vs Stefanik; Hochul +6 vs Arnold
• Men (RV): Hochul +4 vs Stefanik; Arnold +2 vs Hochul (independents drive this)
• Hispanic voters: Hochul +25 vs Stefanik; Hochul +11 vs Arnold (Arnold competitive on cost-of-living frame)
• Black voters: Hochul dominant; Arnold overperforms Stefanik on favorables by ~6 pts (low name ID = room to grow)
• White nonโcollege: Stefanik leads Hochul by 6; Arnold within 4 of Stefanik with “work, wages, housing” message
• Voters rating economy “poor”: Arnold 31 | Hochul 30 | Stefanik 28 (3โway) — transparency + concrete fixes resonate
โธป
Questionnaire (12 items, neutral wording)
1. Reg voter screen (selfโreported)
2. Party ID & 2022 vote recall
3. Fav/Unfav: Hochul, Stefanik, Jason S. Arnold
4. Most important issue (open)
5. Headโtoโhead: Hochul vs Stefanik
6. Headโtoโhead: Hochul vs Jason S. Arnold
7. 3โway ballot: Hochul / Stefanik / Jason S. Arnold / someone else / undecided
8. Confidence in each candidate to improve cost of living (0–10 scale)
9. Confidence to improve public safety (0–10)
10. Message test A (full transparency/DayโOne orders) — more/less likely/ no diff
11. Message test B (Coney Island 2.0 jobs/tourism plan) — more/less likely/ no diff
12. Demographics: age, gender, education, region, race/ethnicity, HH income
New York State Gubernatorial — Mock Poll (Illustrative)
Field dates (mock): Aug 10–13, 2025
Sample: 1,000 registered voters (RV), mixed phone/SMS-to-web
Weighting: Region, gender, age, party ID, race/ethnicity, education, 2022 vote recall
MOE: ±3.1% (RV)
Turnout model: 2022 general baseline with modest GOP improvement in suburbs
Topline — 3โWay Ballot (RV)
• Kathy Hochul (D) — 46%
• Elise Stefanik (R) — 32%
• Jason S. Arnold (I/Other) — 9%
• Someone else — 3%
• Undecided — 10%
Read: Mirrors typical D advantage statewide, Stefanik trails by lowโ to midโteens; Arnold shows early viability as the only candidate running a fully transparent plan.
HeadโtoโHead Scenarios (RV)
Hochul vs. Stefanik
• Hochul 48%
• Stefanik 35%
• Undecided 17%
Hochul vs. Jason S. Arnold
• Hochul 44%
• Arnold 38%
• Undecided 18%
Read: Arnold consolidates more independents and soft Democrats than Stefanik can, cutting the margin to single digits.
Region (3โWay Ballot)
• NYC (approx. 31% of sample): Hochul 67 | Stefanik 15 | Arnold 6 | Und 9
• Downstate Suburbs (LI/Westchester/Rockland, 28%): Hochul 44 | Stefanik 36 | Arnold 11 | Und 7
• Upstate (41%): Stefanik 44 | Hochul 33 | Arnold 11 | Und 9
Read: Arnold’s 10–11% in suburbs & upstate is a credible early lane; growth path is independents + moderate Republicans + antiโstatusโquo Dems.
Party & Independents (3โWay Ballot)
• Democrats: Hochul 77 | Arnold 8 | Stefanik 7 | Und 6
• Republicans: Stefanik 70 | Arnold 13 | Hochul 10 | Und 6
• Independents: Arnold 28 | Hochul 34 | Stefanik 24 | Und 12
Read: Arnold leads or competes for plurality among independents, the key to statewide viability.
Favorability (Fav/Unfav/Don’t know)
• Hochul: 45 / 49 / 6
• Stefanik: 33 / 52 / 15
• Jason S. Arnold: 24 / 16 / 60
Read: Arnold’s low negatives + high unknowns = big upside with nameโID growth.
Top Issues (open-coded → grouped)
• Cost of living/inflation: 34%
• Crime/public safety: 18%
• Housing/affordability: 15%
• Taxes: 12%
• Migration/services capacity: 9%
• Transit/infrastructure: 6%
• Other: 6%
Issue Ownership (net trust)
• Cost of living: Arnold +3 vs Hochul, Arnold +9 vs Stefanik
• Crime: Arnold +5 vs Hochul, Stefanik +2 vs Hochul
• Housing: Arnold +4 vs Hochul, Arnold +7 vs Stefanik
Read: The “fullโplan transparency” message gives Arnold an issues credibility edge—especially on daily-life economics & housing.
Message Tests (net more likely – less likely)
• “Full transparency: every policy & DayโOne orders published now.” +23
• “Coney Island 2.0: tourism/jobs engine (Vegas+AC without the rot).” +14 (Downstate suburbs +19)
• “Whistleblower/transparency on waste, fraud, and noโshow work.” +18
• “Education SEZ/LEZ: local control, measurable outcomes.” +12
• “Mental Health First Act & firstโresponder supports.” +11
โธป
Crosstab Highlights (selected)
• Women (RV): Hochul +17 vs Stefanik; Hochul +6 vs Arnold
• Men (RV): Hochul +4 vs Stefanik; Arnold +2 vs Hochul (independents drive this)
• Hispanic voters: Hochul +25 vs Stefanik; Hochul +11 vs Arnold (Arnold competitive on cost-of-living frame)
• Black voters: Hochul dominant; Arnold overperforms Stefanik on favorables by ~6 pts (low name ID = room to grow)
• White nonโcollege: Stefanik leads Hochul by 6; Arnold within 4 of Stefanik with “work, wages, housing” message
• Voters rating economy “poor”: Arnold 31 | Hochul 30 | Stefanik 28 (3โway) — transparency + concrete fixes resonate
โธป
Questionnaire (12 items, neutral wording)
1. Reg voter screen (selfโreported)
2. Party ID & 2022 vote recall
3. Fav/Unfav: Hochul, Stefanik, Jason S. Arnold
4. Most important issue (open)
5. Headโtoโhead: Hochul vs Stefanik
6. Headโtoโhead: Hochul vs Jason S. Arnold
7. 3โway ballot: Hochul / Stefanik / Jason S. Arnold / someone else / undecided
8. Confidence in each candidate to improve cost of living (0–10 scale)
9. Confidence to improve public safety (0–10)
10. Message test A (full transparency/DayโOne orders) — more/less likely/ no diff
11. Message test B (Coney Island 2.0 jobs/tourism plan) — more/less likely/ no diff
12. Demographics: age, gender, education, region, race/ethnicity, HH income