New York State Gubernatorial — Mock Poll (Illustrative)

Field dates (mock): Aug 10–13, 2025
Sample: 1,000 registered voters (RV), mixed phone/SMS-to-web
Weighting: Region, gender, age, party ID, race/ethnicity, education, 2022 vote recall
MOE: ±3.1% (RV)
Turnout model: 2022 general baseline with modest GOP improvement in suburbs

Topline — 3‑Way Ballot (RV)
• Kathy Hochul (D) — 46%
• Elise Stefanik (R) — 32%
• Jason S. Arnold (I/Other) — 9%
• Someone else — 3%
• Undecided — 10%

Read: Mirrors typical D advantage statewide, Stefanik trails by low‑ to mid‑teens; Arnold shows early viability as the only candidate running a fully transparent plan.

Head‑to‑Head Scenarios (RV)

Hochul vs. Stefanik
• Hochul 48%
• Stefanik 35%
• Undecided 17%

Hochul vs. Jason S. Arnold
• Hochul 44%
• Arnold 38%
• Undecided 18%

Read: Arnold consolidates more independents and soft Democrats than Stefanik can, cutting the margin to single digits.

Region (3‑Way Ballot)
• NYC (approx. 31% of sample): Hochul 67 | Stefanik 15 | Arnold 6 | Und 9
• Downstate Suburbs (LI/Westchester/Rockland, 28%): Hochul 44 | Stefanik 36 | Arnold 11 | Und 7
• Upstate (41%): Stefanik 44 | Hochul 33 | Arnold 11 | Und 9

Read: Arnold’s 10–11% in suburbs & upstate is a credible early lane; growth path is independents + moderate Republicans + anti‑status‑quo Dems.

Party & Independents (3‑Way Ballot)
• Democrats: Hochul 77 | Arnold 8 | Stefanik 7 | Und 6
• Republicans: Stefanik 70 | Arnold 13 | Hochul 10 | Und 6
• Independents: Arnold 28 | Hochul 34 | Stefanik 24 | Und 12

Read: Arnold leads or competes for plurality among independents, the key to statewide viability.

Favorability (Fav/Unfav/Don’t know)
• Hochul: 45 / 49 / 6
• Stefanik: 33 / 52 / 15
• Jason S. Arnold: 24 / 16 / 60

Read: Arnold’s low negatives + high unknowns = big upside with name‑ID growth.

Top Issues (open-coded → grouped)
• Cost of living/inflation: 34%
• Crime/public safety: 18%
• Housing/affordability: 15%
• Taxes: 12%
• Migration/services capacity: 9%
• Transit/infrastructure: 6%
• Other: 6%

Issue Ownership (net trust)
• Cost of living: Arnold +3 vs Hochul, Arnold +9 vs Stefanik
• Crime: Arnold +5 vs Hochul, Stefanik +2 vs Hochul
• Housing: Arnold +4 vs Hochul, Arnold +7 vs Stefanik

Read: The “full‑plan transparency” message gives Arnold an issues credibility edge—especially on daily-life economics & housing.

Message Tests (net more likely – less likely)
• “Full transparency: every policy & Day‑One orders published now.” +23
• “Coney Island 2.0: tourism/jobs engine (Vegas+AC without the rot).” +14 (Downstate suburbs +19)
• “Whistleblower/transparency on waste, fraud, and no‑show work.” +18
• “Education SEZ/LEZ: local control, measurable outcomes.” +12
• “Mental Health First Act & first‑responder supports.” +11

⸻

Crosstab Highlights (selected)
• Women (RV): Hochul +17 vs Stefanik; Hochul +6 vs Arnold
• Men (RV): Hochul +4 vs Stefanik; Arnold +2 vs Hochul (independents drive this)
• Hispanic voters: Hochul +25 vs Stefanik; Hochul +11 vs Arnold (Arnold competitive on cost-of-living frame)
• Black voters: Hochul dominant; Arnold overperforms Stefanik on favorables by ~6 pts (low name ID = room to grow)
• White non‑college: Stefanik leads Hochul by 6; Arnold within 4 of Stefanik with “work, wages, housing” message
• Voters rating economy “poor”: Arnold 31 | Hochul 30 | Stefanik 28 (3‑way) — transparency + concrete fixes resonate

⸻

Questionnaire (12 items, neutral wording)
1. Reg voter screen (self‑reported)
2. Party ID & 2022 vote recall
3. Fav/Unfav: Hochul, Stefanik, Jason S. Arnold
4. Most important issue (open)
5. Head‑to‑head: Hochul vs Stefanik
6. Head‑to‑head: Hochul vs Jason S. Arnold
7. 3‑way ballot: Hochul / Stefanik / Jason S. Arnold / someone else / undecided
8. Confidence in each candidate to improve cost of living (0–10 scale)
9. Confidence to improve public safety (0–10)
10. Message test A (full transparency/Day‑One orders) — more/less likely/ no diff
11. Message test B (Coney Island 2.0 jobs/tourism plan) — more/less likely/ no diff
12. Demographics: age, gender, education, region, race/ethnicity, HH income

If Harvard University were to lose its accreditation — a highly unlikely scenario — the consequences would be enormous and far-reaching. Here’s a breakdown of the key effects:

⸻

Immediate Academic Consequences
• Degrees Lose Prestige: Diplomas from an unaccredited institution carry far less weight, affecting both past and future graduates.
• Transfer Problems: Credits from Harvard would likely not transfer to other accredited institutions.
• Graduate School Admissions: Students applying to law, medical, or graduate programs elsewhere may be rejected or flagged due to a lack of accredited undergraduate credentials.

⸻

Financial Fallout
• Loss of Federal Funding: Accreditation is a requirement for federal student aid. Harvard students would immediately lose access to Pell Grants, federal loans, and work-study programs.
• Student Exodus: Enrollment would plummet as students seek transfers, reducing tuition revenue drastically.
• Research Grants Lost: Most government grants (e.g., from NIH, NSF, DOE) require institutional accreditation.

⸻

Legal and Reputational Impact
• Lawsuits Likely: Students and alumni may sue, especially those who recently enrolled or are in the middle of their degrees.
• Massive PR Crisis: Harvard’s brand — arguably its most valuable asset — would suffer a historic collapse.
• Employer Doubt: Employers might question the credibility of recent Harvard degrees, especially in regulated fields like law or medicine.

⸻

Wider Ripple Effects
• Collapse of Trust in Elite Institutions: If a school as prominent as Harvard loses accreditation, the legitimacy of elite academia across the board could be shaken.
• Policy Scrutiny: It would spark congressional hearings and calls for reforms in accreditation, education funding, and academic oversight.
• Donor Withdrawal: Billion-dollar endowments could face funding freezes or restrictions.

⸻

Why This Would Happen (Hypothetically)

Harvard could lose accreditation only for serious, sustained violations such as:
• Academic dishonesty or fraud
• Gross financial mismanagement
• Discrimination, harassment, or systemic civil rights violations
• Failing to meet standards for faculty qualifications, student outcomes, or institutional integrity

⸻

Final Thought

Harvard losing accreditation would be like the U.S. defaulting on its debt — catastrophic, globally consequential, and almost unimaginable without massive institutional failure. But the precedent would change higher education forever.

APRIL 21 CAMPAIGN MESSAGE | JSA2026

No donors. No consultants. No script.

Just one man with a life lived, a past owned, and a vision for a BETTR New York.

On April 21st, I said it loud and clear: I don’t want to be like them. I’m not here to pretend or follow the playbook. I'm here to fix the rot in Albany—with or without approval from the press, the parties, or the elites.

I’ve lived the struggles most politicians pretend to understand.
I’ve built this campaign from scratch—no PACs, no Wall Street strings.
And I’ve made one promise: every New Yorker gets a seat at the table.

If you’re tired of getting lied to by polished frauds, give this a read.

https://jsa2026.com/campaign-post-april-21-2025/
June 3, 2025
Jason S. Arnold for Governor of New York, 2026
jaysarnold@icloud.com | (516) 586-0660 | JSA2026.com

“I’m not a good candidate. I’m the right one.”

New York’s Insurance Racket Ends With JSA2026
Home and auto premiums are through the roof—and it’s by design. Insurers use credit scores, redline working families, and file rate hikes with zero accountability.

As Governor, I’ll:
Ban credit-based pricing
Launch a public option
Cap executive bloat
Require full transparency for all hikes
Overhaul no-fault fraud
Reward homeowners who invest in safety

We’re done paying more for less. This isn’t a policy tweak—it’s a reset.

https://jsa2026.com/jsa2026-insurance-market-reform-agenda-for-new-york/
#InsuranceReform #jsa2026 #MakeNYBETTR #NYGovernorRace #FairRatesNow #MA

New Bank Fraud Scheme Targeting Long Island Seniors — What You Need to Know

Authorities are warning of a disturbing new scam hitting Long Island: fraudsters posing as bank reps are draining seniors’ accounts through fake security alerts and home visits. Victims are often tricked into handing over cards or PINs. Families are urged to speak with older relatives now—before it’s too late.

#LongIsland #BankFraud #ElderScams #SeniorSafety #FinancialCrime #BETTRNews #JSA2026 #CommunityAlert
https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/bank-fraud-scheme-fake-phone-calls/

Forfeiture vs. Restitution: Professor Sabino Breaks It Down

What’s the difference between forfeiture and restitution in fraud cases?

Professor Anthony M. Sabino, J.D., explains:
Forfeiture strips criminals of their ill-gotten gains—it's about punishing the crime.
Restitution, on the other hand, repays the victims—it's about making people whole.

In white-collar fraud, both may apply. But only one directly helps the people hurt most.

#JusticeExplained #LegalInsight #FraudLaw #WhiteCollarCrime #BETTRCommunity
https://www.stjohns.edu/news-media/st-johns-media/professor-anthony-m-sabino-jd-explains-how-forfeiture-and-restitution-work-fraud-cases

Trump Administration Will Pay Undocumented Migrants $1,000 To Leave the U.S.

In a surprising twist on immigration policy, the Trump-era government quietly implemented a $1,000 cash incentive for undocumented migrants who voluntarily agreed to self-deport.

This controversial program, aimed at reducing legal battles and detention costs, raised eyebrows across the political spectrum:

Proponents say it’s cheaper than prolonged deportation proceedings
Critics argue it rewards illegal entry and may encourage return fraud
Immigration groups remain divided on ethical implications

DHS claimed the approach saved millions in taxpayer funds — but the long-term effectiveness remains unclear.

Would paying people to leave actually solve the immigration crisis?

#ImmigrationPolicy #TrumpEra #BorderSecurity #BETTRnews #MigrantIncentive #VoluntaryDeparture
https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/05/05/trump-administration-will-pay-undocumented-migrants-1000-to-leave-us/?utm_source=ForbesMainFacebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflowForbesMainFB&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR7qV_ZpD-PVdDkrJzWbQ2oBo6IIZKhTBEtKXaFbWG-gr2hP4DB4kHcc8QHVbw_aem_t4Lpab0gfvNI46JnvTcsnQ

JSA2026 Budget Reform Plan: Fixing What Albany Broke

ObjectiveTo expose the failures of Governor Hochul's FY2026 budget and present a bold, fiscally grounded, people-first alternative that reflects the values of a real commonwealth. This post outlines where the current proposal falls short and how JSA2026 will build a state budget that actually works for working New Yorkers.

What’s Wrong with Hochul’s FY2026 Budget

Outyear Budget Gaps IgnoredProjected deficits rise from $6.5B (FY27) to $11B (FY29) — and Hochul offers no structural fixes.

One-Time Inflation Refund Gimmicks$3B in short-term refunds, no plan to combat rising costs at the root.

Medicaid Is Ballooning, No ReformsMedicaid exceeds $105B — no cost caps, no efficiency incentives, no fraud crackdown.

Still Dependent on High-Income Tax ExtensionsAlbany banking on wealthy residents staying in NY while raising their taxes to cover middle-class relief.

Overreliance on Reserves & PTET Timing TricksKicking the can with budget rollovers and temporary credits instead of confronting the revenue gap.

Acknowledges Risks, But Takes No ActionInflation, labor shortages, tariffs, immigration, and climate costs are all admitted in the forecast — but there’s no budgetary response.

Commercial Real Estate Collapse Not AddressedOffice vacancy and real estate defaults threaten NYC’s tax base, but the state offers no backup plan.

No Adjustments to Population Loss or Labor DeclineWorkforce growth expected to fall to 0.7%. No plan to retain or attract talent.

The JSA2026 Budget Plan: Real Fixes, Not Fantasy

1. Freeze and Phase Down Top-End Spending Growth• Cap Medicaid increases at 3% per year unless offset by fraud recovery or managed care performance.
• Pause automatic education aid hikes in districts with shrinking enrollment.

2. Redirect Refund Gimmicks Into Permanent Cost Relief• End inflation refund giveaways.
• Replace with permanent utility tax rollback and fuel fee cap.

3. Tax Reform That Rewards Working Families, Not Budget Loopholes• Phase out PTET gimmick by 2028.
• Flatten tax brackets while eliminating carveouts that favor connected industries.

4. Build the Commonwealth Reserve• Codify a 5% revenue holdback into law.
• No more “emergency” use of rainy-day funds to cover recurring costs.

5. Launch Operation Efficiency• Department-by-department review to cut administrative overhead by 10% in 3 years.
• Consolidate overlapping state agencies.

6. Reclaim Dormant State Assets• Use Operation Ghost Town to lease or repurpose empty jails, unused office buildings, and surplus school properties.
• Revenue redirected into housing, mental health, and infrastructure.

7. Empower Local Tax Autonomy Through SEZs & LEZs• Special Empowerment Zones allow localities to raise or lower certain taxes tied to performance.
• School Empowerment Zones pilot local education tax control.

8. Create a Budget Risk Dashboard• Real-time public tracker of inflation, labor, real estate defaults, and revenue performance.
• Transparency portal so citizens can see risk before it hits their wallets.

Why It Matters

• NY’s budget shortfall is not theoretical — it’s guaranteed unless we act.• One-time tricks, federal dependence, and political games have made Albany addicted to delay.• Every household will be impacted when debt rises, services collapse, or new taxes are rushed through.• JSA2026 is the only campaign building a pre-emptive, real-world plan — not waiting for crisis to hit.

Conclusion

The FY2026 budget is a glittering shell hiding structural rot. JSA2026 offers the only alternative built on restraint, reality, and results. We don’t need more bailouts — we need a better blueprint.

I’m not a good candidate. I’m the right one.
full 10 vol. plan @
https://jsa2026.com/newsroom/campaign-post/

#JSA2026 #BudgetReform #FixTheGaps #NoMoreGimmicks #FiscalTruth #CommonwealthEconomics #NYDeservesBETTR

Ex-U.S. Rep. George Santos Sentenced to Over 7 Years in Prison for Fraud and Identity Theft

Former Congressman George Santos has been sentenced to more than 7 years behind bars after being convicted of multiple charges, including fraud and identity theft. Once seen as a rising political figure, Santos' downfall marks another black eye for New York’s political class — a reminder that integrity must be non-negotiable in public service.

#GeorgeSantos #NewYorkPolitics #Fraud #IdentityTheft #PoliticalCorruption #Accountability #LawAndOrder #JSA2026 #BETTRNews #TurnNYRed

Full Story:
https://longisland.news12.com/ex-us-rep-george-santos-sentenced-to-over-7-years-in-prison-for-fraud-and-identity-theft?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR5BbNdm4GVRSyZYj6A91FFqg8tZ0m25puzpZVjBYWgbl6MSWhOImYPefeVGJg_aem_dZqfPiMNEimPGp9FlZjUkw

From Junk Wires to Broken Deals: Why China Tariffs Are Just the Start

Once upon a time, America believed in trade deals.
We believed that opening markets would lift everyone, that cheap goods would help families stretch a dollar, and that global cooperation would lead to global respect.

But then reality hit—in the form of 3 copper strands and a useless fiber wire from a “universal” car stereo made in China.

That’s not a metaphor. That’s the quality we’re importing.
You can’t even wire a Chinese head unit into an American car without praying it works, because their definition of "wiring" is flimsy, cheap, and borderline fraudulent.

American wires? Still thin, but real copper.
Chinese wires? Three strands and a dream.

And this isn’t just about stereos. It’s across the board:

The Trade Deficit Story
In 2023, the U.S. trade deficit with China hit $279 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

That means we imported nearly $280 billion more in goods from China than they bought from us.

For every $1 of goods they buy from us, we buy over $4 from them.

We’re not just losing money—we’re losing manufacturing, losing jobs, and lowering our standards.

Quality Control: The Illusion of Value
Think about it:

How many times have you ordered electronics from eBay or Amazon and had to send them back?

How many of us have bought “cheap” only to realize it costs twice as much in time, replacements, or repairs?

This isn’t “affordable”—it’s predatory pricing disguised as savings.
It’s not a “deal” if you’re replacing it in a month.

Unfair Playing Field
U.S. businesses follow labor laws, environmental rules, and safety standards.

China floods our markets while operating state-owned factories with low wages, minimal regulations, and zero accountability.

And when we try to push back? They call it a trade war.
We call it common sense.

Bottom Line:
Until China can produce goods that match American craftsmanship, safety, and standards—we shouldn’t just tariff them.
We should cut them off entirely from essential industries: tech, energy, defense, infrastructure.

We need to bring manufacturing back home.
We need to rebuild pride in “Made in the USA.”
We need to stop apologizing for wanting quality, fairness, and jobs right here at home.

#ChinaTariffs #MadeInUSA #TradeDeficit #FairTrade #AmericaFirst #ManufacturingMatters #TurnNYRed #JSA2026 #BETTRNews

Full campaign & movement info: https://www.bettrsm.com
Campaign Contact: (516) 586-0660
April 24, 2025
“I’m not a good candidate. I’m the right one.” — JSA2026

BETTR Campaign Post | April 21, 2025

JSA2026: “I’m Rewriting What It Means to Be a Felon in New York”

For decades, New York has treated non-violent offenders like violent criminals—stripping them of their rights, futures, and humanity long after they’ve served their time.

That ends the day I take office.

As Governor of New York, I will redefine what a “felon” is under state law. From that day forward, only violent criminals will carry the legal designation of “felon.” Non-violent offenders will be reclassified—and their rights will be restored.

The JSA Fix: Redefining Felons, Restoring Rights
“Felon” will be redefined to only include convictions involving violence, coercion, or sexual harm.

Non-violent individuals (such as drug possession, property crimes, fraud without bodily harm) will be reclassified as “offenders”, not felons.

All non-violent offenders who have served their time will have their civil rights restored—including:

Voting

Gun ownership

Jury service

Public office eligibility

Professional licensing

They will no longer be branded for life. They will be treated like citizens, not permanent criminals.

But What About Federal Law?
Here’s the legal key:

Under federal law (18 U.S. Code § 922(g)(1)), the gun ban only applies if someone is considered a felon and has not had their rights restored.

So I say this:

If New York won’t call them felons — then Washington can’t treat them like one.

By redefining the classification and restoring rights explicitly, we give non-violent former offenders the legal foundation to reclaim their Second Amendment rights.

They Will Try to Stop Me. Let Them.
I expect lawsuits. I expect politicians, lawyers, and activist judges to panic. I welcome it.

Let them step forward. Let the court challenges come.

I will stand for every man and woman who made a mistake, served their sentence, and now lives under silent exile. I will say to them:

“Your punishment is over. Your freedom is restored. And no one will take it from you again—not while I’m Governor of New York.”

This Isn’t a Democrat or Republican Issue. It’s a Humanity Issue.
We need public safety — and that starts with distinguishing real threats from reformed citizens. Keeping non-violent offenders branded for life only pushes them further away from jobs, family, and society.

This is about dignity. Opportunity. And redemption.

Spread the Word
A BETTR New York starts by restoring those who never should’ve been destroyed. This is how we fight mass incarceration and protect our streets — without destroying lives over technicalities.

I’m Jason S. Arnold, and I’m running for Governor to give New York BETTR laws, BETTR justice, and BETTR freedom.

#JSA2026 #TurnNYRed #BETTRJustice #RedefineFelon #SecondChance #GunRights #CriminalJusticeReform #BETTRCampaign

April 21, 2025
Campaign HQ: (516) 586-0660
jaysarnold@icloud.com
https://bettrsm.com

Trump Admin Refers NY AG Letitia James for Criminal Prosecution Over Alleged Mortgage Fraud

In a dramatic twist, the Trump administration has referred New York Attorney General Letitia James to the Department of Justice for possible criminal prosecution. The allegations? Misrepresenting key details on mortgage documents to secure favorable loan terms for properties in Brooklyn and Virginia.

The referral, issued by FHFA Director William Pulte, claims James may have falsely listed her primary residence and misrepresented property unit counts. One document from 1983 even listed James and her father as “husband and wife.”

This comes just weeks after James won a $464 million civil fraud judgment against Donald Trump, leading critics to call the referral political payback. James’s office responded defiantly, saying she “will not be intimidated by bullies.”

This fight is far from over—and could reshape political and legal battlegrounds heading into 2026.

#LetitiaJames #TrumpNews #MortgageFraud #CriminalReferral #NYPolitics #BETTR #DOJ #PoliticalRetaliation #Accountability

Full Story:
https://www.fox4news.com/news/trump-administration-ny-ag-letitia-james-possible-prosecution-mortgage-fraud-allegations?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR5ZO9swpFi6SNt_PBmP4Om8aFyiZn4zzC3FPnHZeCJ7ta44uNeVZs2--wkTHw_aem_e9Cpz6qB92bu7s_mqSUWQQ